Arizona has two rental calendars. In the Valley, the high season is winter and spring. In Sedona, the Verde Valley and the high country, demand peaks in spring and fall, and Flagstaff and Prescott also peak in summer. This guide covers what drives each season and how much nightly rates move, and what owners and renters can do about it.
The biggest seasonal swings are in nightly and furnished stays, where prices reset daily. The figures below compare average nightly rates (ADR) for short-term rentals in peak months against low months. The data covers August 2025 through July 2026.
Hotels show the same pattern. Across Maricopa County, the average hotel rate in Q1 2025 (January to March) was $227.03, against $124.61 in Q3 (July to September). That is about 82% higher in winter. Occupancy was 76.1% in Q1, against 57.6% in Q3.4,5
Short-term rental figures: AirROI, August 2025–July 2026, published September 2026.1,2,3,6 Percent differences are our calculations from the published averages.
February – April
Snowbird season, spring training and the year's biggest events overlap. In Scottsdale, short-term rental occupancy averaged 61.0% and the nightly rate $492. March is the strongest month, at 68.5% occupancy and $543 a night.1 Event weeks run higher still: in February 2023, Super Bowl weekend fell during the WM Phoenix Open, and Phoenix hotels averaged $538 a night.7
October – January · May – June
Demand builds through fall as winter visitors arrive and the event calendar fills. Thanksgiving 2025 nightly rates in Phoenix-Scottsdale rose 5.2% from the year before, to about $300.8 May and June taper as the heat arrives.
July – September
Scottsdale short-term occupancy fell to 35.7%, with a $334 average rate. July was the lowest month, at 26.3%.1 Resorts discount heavily: summer 2026 offers ran up to 60% below winter pricing.9 Monsoon season officially runs June 15 to September 30.10
About half of Sedona's visitors come from the Phoenix area, so the red-rock calendar runs differently from the Valley's.11 Spring break and fall color drive the peaks, and midsummer heat and midwinter cold are the slow periods. The higher, cooler towns flip that pattern and peak when the Valley is hottest.
Peak: Mar · Apr · Oct
Peak-month occupancy averaged 65.6% at $500 a night, against 36.0% at $385 in the low months (January, July and August). March is the strongest month (71.0%, $530), and July the weakest (26.3%, $361).6 In October 2025, Sedona hotels ran 74.8% occupancy at a $446 average rate.11
Peak: Mar – May
Rates are steadier: the peak nightly rate is about 14% above the low season ($231 vs. $202). Occupancy moves more, so monthly revenue roughly doubles in peak season ($4,591 vs. $2,259).12
Peak: Mar · Apr · Oct
Nightly rates barely change ($167 vs. $165), but peak-season revenue runs about 64% higher on occupancy alone.12
Peak: summer + December
Flagstaff peaks in December, August and March. December is its top month, at $342 a night. Prescott peaks in August, March and December. Both are at their best in summer, when Valley residents head for cooler air.12,13
Arizona law doesn't let cities ban short-term rentals, but since 2022 it does let them require permits and enforce local rules.14 Sedona's ordinance, last amended October 2025, requires:
Fines run from $500 to $3,500. As of June 2026, Sedona had 1,440 permitted short-term rental units, about 19% of its residential housing.15,16 Owners weighing a seasonal or nightly strategy should budget for compliance, or consider a long-term lease that avoids it.
See which events drive demand each month on our Arizona Events Calendar.
We manage homes across Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Greater Phoenix, Sedona and the Verde Valley. We'll show you what your property can earn on an annual lease or on a seasonal plan.